Hey everybody,

If you’re reading this, thanks! It’s been about 7 years since I last blogged and my prediction of a Cubs dynasty didn’t quite pan out, but I won’t let that stop me! Today’s post will be a long one, and it will be previewing the 96th Academy Awards taking place on March 10th at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles.

Over the last five years, I’ve become quite a cinephile. Not in the sense that I want to have sex with the movies, but rather that I’ve really come to appreciate the release they bring from day-to-day stressors as well as developing an ever-growing appreciation of the artistry that it takes to make something special.  I rank my movies seen by “Oscar Season” (E.g. January 2023-March 2024), so I only rank the ones that I saw within that time frame. Since January of 2019, I’ve seen 261 new releases either in theaters or through home video on demand (COVID wasn’t all bad).

I use my own ranking scale that I refer to as the “Alex Scale”. The Alex Scale is simple and broken down as follows:

-50% is the quality of the movie. Acting, cinematography, score, screenplay and everything else that goes into grading the quality of a movie is reflected here.

-50% is how much that I enjoyed the movie. Plenty of movies are objectively well made but are either incredibly boring or lack any heart – shoutout to the majority of Adam Driver’s filmography. Plenty of movies are objectively poorly made but are fun or exciting and have a ton of heart – shoutout to the majority of Adam Sandler’s filmography.

Reflecting on all those factors leads me to my score. I’m not even remotely an expert on cinema, I’m simply a guy who likes movies.  I generally only watch movies that look interesting to me or are Best Picture nominations. As a result, my scores are relatively high with my average score probably being close to 7.5/10.0. Think of it as a fucked up academic grading scale where 69% is failure, 75% is average, and 80% is very good.

If you want to skip to the important categories, they’re at the end. You put all the stuff no one cares about first to ensure it all gets read too (journalism trick of the trade). Betting odds are included on all applicable categories for those who are interested. I went more in depth into each Best Picture nomination since that’s the most important category and the only one where I consistently see everything that’s nominated. Anyways, let’s dive into it.

2024 Best Animated Short Film

Nominees: Letter to a Pig, Ninety-Five Senses, our Uniform, Pachyderme, War is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko.

Who will win? Didn’t watch any of these, rooting against War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko because the title is obnoxious.

2024 Best Live Action Short Film

Nominees: The After, Invincible, Knight of Fortune, Red White and Blue, The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Who will win? You’ll be shocked to hear that I also didn’t watch any of these. They all sound cool though.

2024 Best Production Design

Nominees: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer (Barbie), Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis (Killers of the Flower Moon), Arthur Max; Set Decoration: Elli Griff (Napoleon), Ruth De Jong; Set Decoration: Claire Kaufman (Oppenheimer), James Price and Shona Heath; Set Decoration: Zsuzsa Mihalek (Poor Things)

Who will win? I actually don’t know what this award is even for. I’ll say the Killers of the Flower Moon (8.5/10) team will win this since they’re nominated for a bunch of awards but probably won’t win anything else.

2024 Best Visual Effects

Nominees: The Creator, Godzilla Minus One, Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Napoleon. 

Who will win? I can see them giving any of these movies this award, all for different reasons. The Creator (6.6/10) sucked, but somehow got multiple nominations so maybe I missed something. There’s no denying the final installment of the Guardians of The Galaxy (8.5/10) trilogy had its flaws, but James Gunn’s final act in the MCU still looked great on the big screen. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning (8.7/10) continued the precedent set by franchise’s pervious entries as the premier action movie franchise of the 21st century. Napoleon (7.1/10) was a bit of letdown, but Ridley Scott never disappoints when it comes to the visuals of his large-scale battle scenes.  My pick for the winner in this category is Godzilla Minus One (9.1/10). I’m still upset Japan didn’t submit this for the Best International Feature Film category, this was my second favorite movie of the year. The way that this was shot was very reflective of the old school Godzilla movies, but they blended in just enough special effects to create a flawless visual experience. Don’t let the subtitles be a barrier here, this is a must watch.

2024 Best Sound

Nominees: The Creator, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest

Who will win? This is going to be The Zone of Interest (7.5/10). See the movie and you’ll know what I’m talking about (SPOILER ALERT: Holocaust noises).

2024 Best Original Song

Nominees: “What Was I Made For?” (Barbie -700), “I’m Just Ken” (Barbie +500), “The Fire Inside” (Flamin’ Hot +1000), “It Never Went Away” (American Symphony +2000), “Wahzhazhe” (Killers of the Flower Moon +2000)

Who will win? I’m prepared to be mad here, but it’s going to be “What Was I Made For”. It’s not even the best song in Barbie, but the Billy Eilish and Barbie fans tuning in have to get at least one win. Nice to see Flamin’ Hot (7.9) get a little love here. I don’t remember the song that was nominated for this, but it was a way better movie than it had any right to be.

2024 Best Original Score

Nominees: Ludwig Göransson (Oppenheimer –1800), Robbie Robertson (Killers of the Flower Moon +1000), Jerskin Fendrix (Poor Things +1400), Laura Karpman (American Fiction +2000), John Williams (Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny +2000).

Who will win? Ludwig Göransson / Oppenheimer (9.5/10) is a layup here.  Part of me wants them to give this to John Williams as a legacy award just so they run a montage of his greatest hits, but that isn’t happening.

2024 Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Nominees: Karen Hartley Thomas, Suzi Battersby and Ashra Kelly-Blue (Golda), Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell (Maestro), Luisa Abel (Oppenheimer), Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier and Josh Weston (Poor Things), Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí and Montse Ribé (Society of the Snow)

Who will win? Probably one of the ones I didn’t watch. The only time I ever got this category right was when Cruella (8.1/10) took it home a few years ago. I should revisit that score, that was a “No new movies are coming out during COVID” score. As for this year’s winner, let’s go with Golda. No idea what that is or is about but sounds about right. (Editors note: Cruella won “Best Costume Design”, not “Best Makeup and Hairstyling”.)

2024 Best International Feature Film

Nominees: The Zone of Interest (-2500), Society of the Snow (+750), Perfect Days (+1600), Io Capitano (+2000),The Teacher’s Lounge (+2500)

Who will win? I’m boycotting this category because Godzilla Minus One wasn’t nominated. But obviously Zone of Interest is going to win here as the betting odds suggest.

2024 Best Film Editing

Nominees: Laurent Sénéchal (Anatomy of a Fall), Kevin Trent (The Holdovers), Thelma Schoonmaker (Killers of the Flower Moon), Jennifer Lame (Oppenheimer), Yorgos Mavropsaridis (Poor Things)

Who will win? Oppenheimer should win this, but it can’t win everything, and I have a feeling that this is where Anatomy of a Fall (7.9/10) gets its win. A very boring movie made watchable by the style and pace, I think that’s editing… right?

2024 Best Documentary Short Film

Nominees: The ABCs of Book Banning, The Barber of Little Rock, Island in Between, The Last Repair Ship, Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó

Who will win? I didn’t watch any of these, let’s go with The ABCs of Book Banning because that sounds like the type of shit the academy eats up.

2024 Best Documentary Feature Film

Nominees: Bobie Wine: The People’s President, The Eternal Memory, Four Daughters, To Kill a Tiger, 20 Days in Mariupol

Who will win? Who knows, I didn’t watch any of these either. Let’s say To Kill a Tiger because the title sounds the most interesting of all of these.

2024 Best Costume Design 

Nominees: Jacqueline Durran (Barbie), Jacqueline (Killers of the Flower Moon), Janty Yates and Dave Crossman (Napoleon), Ellen

Mirojnick (Oppenheimer), Holly Waddington (Poor Things)

Who will win? An argument can be made for every nominee this year, but I’m going to go with Holly Waddington and the Poor Things (6.9/10) team. This movie made me feel unwell, but the unique style made the characters feel both from the future as well as from the past. I give them credit for making a movie look like something I haven’t ever seen before. Would not recommend watching this though.

2024 Best Cinematography 

Nominees: Hoyte Van Hoytema (Oppenheimer –550), Rodrigo Prieto (Killers of the Flower Moon +1000) , Robbie Ryan (Poor Things +1000) Edward Lachman (El Conde i+1600), Matthew Libatique (Maestro +1900),

Who will win?  Oppenheimer, next.

2024 Best Animated Feature Film

Nominees: Spider-Man: Across the Spider Verse (-180), The Boy and the Heron (+115), Nimona (+2300), Elemental (+2900), Robot Dreams (+3400), 

Who will win?

This is a two-horse race between the Boy and the Heron and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (9.0/10). I only saw one of these, so if Miles Morales and co. don’t bring this home I’ll be mad and feel like I backed the wrong horse. The movie was great though, maybe the best animation that I’ve ever seen. Sony has failed on a lot of their superhero projects lately, but this is a home run. It’s crazy how far Pixar has fallen where their annual featured film in Elemental (6.7/10) gets a pity nomination but no buzz at all. Those movies used to have so much heart that made them fun for adults and kids alike, but now… yikes.

2024 Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

Nominees: Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer +100), Cord Jefferson (American Fiction +225), Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach (Barbie +300), Tony McNamara (Poor Things +750), Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest +2500)

Who will win? I’m not great at this category, and it feels like the answer is obviously Oppenheimer. But I have a feeling they give American Fiction (7.2/10) the nod here to keep people on their toes. It’s not nominated but The Iron Claw (8.6/10) should have been. Zac Efron gives his best performance to date in the (SPOILER ALERT) feel bad movie of the year. How Barbie and Poor Things were nominated here over The Iron Claw will cause me to lose sleep for decades.

2024 Best Writing (Original Screenplay)

Nominees: Justine Triet and Arthur Harari (Anatomy of a Fall -162), David Hemingson (The Holdovers +150), Celine Song (Past Lives +1000) Bradley Cooper & Josh Singe (Maestro +2500), Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik (May December +3300)

Who will win? Anatomy of a Fall is the favorite here, but don’t sleep on Past Lives (7.5/10). If I had to take a flier on a longshot here, I’d take that one at 10/1. Wasn’t a movie for me, but it’s the type that the academy loves. I think the acting in The Holdovers (7.9/10) made it what it was, the screenplay was pretty turn of the mill.

2024 Best Actress in a Supporting Roll

Nominees: Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers –1600) Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer +1000), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple+1000), America Ferrara (Barbie +2000), Jodie Foster (Nyad +2500)

Who will win? I didn’t see The Color Purple or Nyad, but LOL at America Ferrara getting nominated here. Rachel McAdams was snubbed, she carried Are You There God? It’s me, Margaret (7.0/10) and they gave a tertiary (at best) character in a popcorn flick an Oscars nomination? -Yes, I understand the irony there.  Nonetheless, Da’Vine Joy Randolph is going to win this easily for her role in the Holdovers. I hadn’t seen her in anything before but she’s fantastic and balanced with Paul Giamatti’s character to create a great dynamic. I look forward to seeing what she does next.

2024 Best Actor in a Supporting Roll

Nominees:  Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer –800), Ryan Gosling (Barbie +550), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon +1600), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things +1600), Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction +2500)

Who will win? It’s time to put a nice bow on Hollywood’s greatest redemption story. Captivating the world for a decade with his portrayal of Iron Man (9.1/10), Robert Downey Jr. overcame a ton of (self-inflicted) adversity to become a true Hollywood A-Lister. The Marvel Cinematic Universe and its actors draw a ton of criticism, but the critics ignore that the caliber of actors and their performances in the MCU elevated the superhero genre to previously unseen mainstream popularity.  He was excellent in Oppenheimer, and I hope we see him get more roles like this in the future. Ryan Gosling stole the show as Ken in Barbie, and De Niro gave his best performance in 20 years in Killers of the Flower Moon. But this one is a lock for RDJ.

2024 Best Actress in a Leading Roll

Nominees: Emma Stone (Poor Things -150), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon +120), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall +1800), Carey Mulligan (Maestro +2500), Annette Bening (Nyad +3300),

Who will win? This is a complete tossup. The Academy loves Poor Things it seems, but I just can’t see how Emma Stone wins this. She took a huge risk in this role and played a character that no one had ever seen before. But Lily Gladstone dominated scenes that she shared with Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro. Stone is the betting favorite, but I think that Gladstone takes home her first Academy Award.

2024 Best Actor in a Leading Roll

Nominees: Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer -300), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers +188), Bradley Cooper (Maestro +2000), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction +6600) Colman Domingo (Rustin +6600)

Who will win?  Paul Giamatti was incredible in The Holdovers and is very deserving of the nomination. But Cillian Murphy is going to win this one. The harrowing fear and anxiety that he expressed in his role as Dr. Robert Oppenheimer without saying a word will stick with me for a long time. I’m not sure that there’s another actor who could have played that character better than Murphy did, and he’ll be rewarded with his first academy award.

2024 Best Director

Nominees: Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer -2000), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things +1800), Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest +1800), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon +2500), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall +3300)

Who will win? Christopher Nolan promised an epic summer blockbuster that would captivate the world, and he delivered. Well deserved for the best director in the game right now.

2024 Best Picture

Nominees: Oppenheimer (-700), Poor Things(+1200), The Holdovers (+1400), Barbie (+1400). Killers of the Flower Moon (+2500), Anatomy of a Fall (+2500), The Zone of Interest(+4000), American Fiction (+5000), Past Lives (+10000), Maestro (+10000)

The Favorite: Oppenheimer (9.5/10) is going to win Best Picture this year, don’t waste your money chasing any of the longshots. Full disclosure, this is my second highest scored movie (9.5/10) of the last five years. A masterpiece in every sense of the word, this will go down as one of the best movies of the 2020’s. Cillian Murphy is sensational in this, his portrayal of the internal struggle that Dr. Robert Oppenheimer faced was chilling, and his non-verbal acting will be shown to young theater students for the next century. The supporting cast was phenomenal as well. It was nice to see Robert Downey Jr. remind everyone that Iron Man can act, and Emily Blunt was as great as she is in pretty much everything. Speaking of people chewed up by the Disney machine, young Han Solo himself (Alden Ehrenreich) was a pleasant surprise and put himself back on the map. Florence Pugh rocks, nothing new there. Crazy that I got this far without mentioning that Josh Hartnett and Matt Damon crushed their supporting roles, is it 2004 again? The only flaw in this movie is that Christopher Nolan somehow decided that the person to portray the guy in charge of detonating the nuke, should be Josh Peck. A hilariously bad casting decision that took some of the thunder out of the film’s biggest moment.

The Others:

–The Holdovers (7.9/10) was a solid movie carried heavily by the performances of Paul Giamatti and Da’Vine Joy Randolph, but this will ultimately join a long list of forgotten “coming of age” movies.

–Poor Things (6.9/10) left me feeling uncomfortable and I can’t ever see myself watching that again. Emma Stone is among the best in the business, but I can’t shake the fact that I was watching a developmentally disabled woman (to quote the movie verbatim “a beautiful retard”) being sexually assaulted for an alarming amount of screen time.

–Killers of the Flower Moon (8.5/10) is an incredibly well-made movie, that is held back from being considered truly great by its pacing and style

Scorsese focused more on the personal side of the story, rather than the investigation/true crime aspect of it. The result “wasted” a great Leo performance and De Niro’s best performance in 20 years. Lily Gladstone was a star here, and it felt like a few twists in the storytelling here could have elevated this significantly.

–Anatomy of a Fall (7.9/10) was a letdown for me. I had high hopes, and the story had a lot of promise but ultimately my only take away is that the French courtroom system being akin to American daytime court TV is fucking hilarious. Sandra Hüller was good as the lead, but (SPOILER ALERT) when her blind son intentionally poisoned his dog I was rooting for their demise from then on.

–The Zone of Interest (7.5/10) – was another letdown. I appreciate the creativity in trying a new way to tell a very familiar story, but I never was truly captivated by it. The sounds were chilling, and the way that the story unfolded executed the intended vision to perfection. Unfortunately, that vision is not my vision.

Why is this nominated?

–Maestro (DNF) was one of the three movies I couldn’t finish this year; I gave it three tries. So boring, I didn’t like Tár last year either though so maybe I just hate movies about composers.

–Barbie (8.0/10) is a lot of fun but come on. A shameless nomination given solely to draw eyes to the event by including a summer blockbuster that captivated an audience who normally ignores the Oscars.

-Past Lives (7.5/10) was one I heard great reviews on, but I guess I just didn’t get it. (SPOILER ALERT) The whole story is that these kids who went their own separate ways in life then met again later but are sad now? You can skip this one.

–American Fiction (7.2/10) … I got nothing. It was fine.

Who will win? It was always Oppenheimer.

Picks Summary (Odds as of 2/28/2024)

Oppenheimer – Best Cinematography (-550) -> $550 to win $100.

The Zone of Interest – Best International Picture (-2500) -> $2,500 to win $100.

Oppenheimer – Best Original Score (-1800) -> $1,800 to win $100.

“What Was I Made For?”- Best Original Song (-700) -> $700 to win $100.

Spider-Man: Across the Spider Verse Best – Best Animated Feature Film (-180) -> $180 to win $100.

Christopher Nolan – Best Director (-2000) -> $2,000 to win $100.

Past Lives – Best Original Screen Play (+1000) -> $10 to win $100.

American Fiction – Best Adapted Screen Play (+220) -> $45 to win $100.

Da’Vine Joy Randolph – Best Supporting Actress (-1600) -> $1,600 to win $100.

Robert Downey Jr. – Best Supporting Actor (-800) -> $800 to win $100.

Lily Gladstone – Best Lead Actress (+120) -> $83 to win $100.

Cillian Murphy – Best Lead Actor (-300) -> $300 to win $100.

Oppenheimer – Best Picture (-700) -> $700 to win $100.

Total: $11,268 to win $1,300

Well, that was a lot of work. But it was also very fun, if you made it this far, I appreciate you reading 3,000 words about my opinions on movies. Going forward these will usually be shorter, aiming to get one a week out. Thanks!